Bitcoin $BTC$84,190.37 slipped below $84,000 shortly after midnight UTC after Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent Crude above $101 a barrel and lifting Treasury yields and the dollar.
The damage grew heavier further down the market, as the CoinDesk 80, which tracks a wide basket of smaller tokens, lost nearly 4% over the past 24 hours, against 2.5% for the CoinDesk 5. DeFi tokens fell almost 6% while the Memecoin Index tumbled by around 5%. Only a handful of tokens including SAND, PUMP and $STX have managed to rise since midnight UTC.
Liquidations climbed 235% to $547 million over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Ether $ETH$2,578.76 positions accounted for $174 million of that as it trades at $2,600 having lost 3.5% since midnight.
Demand from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had held up going into the drop. The funds took in $119 million on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue, their fourth day of inflows in the last five sessions.
Minutes of the Fed's September meeting, when it raised rates by a quarter point, are due later Wednesday. Weaker jobs data has made another increase this month look less likely, Dan Khus, chief analyst at LVRG Research, told CoinDesk. Traders will be watching whether the minutes sound patient or still point to one more hike before year-end, he said.
Derivatives positioning
- Liquidations surge as traders stay cautious: Futures trading volume rose 16% to $182.85 billion over the past 24 hours, while open interest (OI) slipped just 1% to $152.60 billion. Liquidations jumped 216% to $548 million, and shorts accounted for over 52% of taker volume. Rising volume with flat OI and a seller-heavy tape points to active repositioning rather than fresh bullish bets.
- Bitcoin leverage demand remains weak: $BTC futures OI rose to 660,000 $BTC, extending its recovery from an 11-month low of 626,000 $BTC on Sept. 30. That's still far below the record high of 800,000 $BTC set earlier this year. The rebound is too small to signal a return of leveraged bullish bets.
- Whales split across exchanges: Whale accounts and positions on Binance lean bullish on $BTC, while those on OKX are bearish to neutral, according to Coinglass. On Binance, the whale bias is bearish for $ETH, SOL and XRP. The mixed signals suggest big players aren't aligned on direction.
- Ether OI challenges its downtrend: Ether futures OI jumped to 13.22 million $ETH from 12.5 million a day earlier. If the gain holds, it would mark a clear break above the downtrend line from the May peak of around 15.95 million $ETH, a sign that traders are returning to ether.
- $STX leads altcoin gains with fresh longs: Stacks' $STX is the best performer among the top 100 coins over 24 hours, up nearly 6%. Its futures OI rose 3%, and a price gain alongside rising OI suggests new long positions. AVAX and DOT also posted notable OI gains.
- Funding and order flow tilt bearish: Perpetual funding rates for majors, including bitcoin and ether, have turned slightly negative, meaning shorts are paying longs to hold their positions. The 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) for majors is also negative, showing sellers are more aggressive, hitting bids with market orders.
- Crypto volatility stays calm as bond market stirs: Bitcoin's and ether's 30-day implied volatility indices remain near year-to-date lows, and Wall Street's VIX is also near its yearly lows, even as bond market volatility rises. Some observers expect the gap to close. Low implied volatility keeps options cheap for traders looking to hedge.
- Bitcoin options traders keep chasing upside: On Deribit, bitcoin calls at strikes above $80,000 continue to dominate 24-hour trading volume. Skews remain largely neutral even as analysts stay optimistic about further gains. Ether options show a similar pattern.
