The Clock Has Not Moved, but the Bond Market Has
The billionaire macro investor believes that U.S. debt service payments are squeezing out spending, and that a debt crisis is possible within three years. In late August, Dalio had reiterated the same, noting:
A crisis could arrive in roughly three years, plus or minus two years if the deficit path holds.
That said, what seems to have changed in the six weeks since is the price of borrowing, with the latest warning landing with long-term yields sitting at levels the market has not seen in decades.
