Despite Bitcoin (BTC) trading near $89,260 at press time, one prominent crypto analyst has warned that the asset could fall as low as $38,000 in 2026, citing a bearish technical signal.
Specifically, respected on-chain cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez claims to have identified a Bitcoin death cross using the 10 and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA), per an X article published on January 1.
Within the same article, the analyst explained that, in the past, such a signal preceded a BTC crash of between 53% – as in March of 2020 – and 67% – like in September of 2014.
For more than a decade, BTC generally followed a 4-year cycle that featured three years of climbing followed by a red year. This time, the pattern was broken already in its third year, as, despite an explosive start to 2025, Bitcoin closed approximately 8% down for the 12-month period.
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