Coinbase Institutional’s latest monthly market outlook report notes that significant deleveraging has occurred in the crypto market following the massive liquidation wave on October 10, which may have created a short-term bottom.
According to the institution, the market “reset, not broke” and an upward trend may emerge in the coming months as the leverage structure returns to healthy levels.
According to analysts, based on the implied distribution in the options market, the Bitcoin price could range between $90,000 and $160,000 over the next three to six months. Coinbase states that this distribution is asymmetrically upward. The report also notes that expected Fed interest rate cuts, liquidity expansion, and new regulations are medium-term macroeconomic influences that could extend the cycle into 2026.
Coinbase describes the October 10 liquidation as a squeeze driven by market fixtures, not a structural issue. While pressure is mounting due to the sharp decline in altcoins and the pullback of market makers, the institution believes the fundamentals remain solid:
“The sell-off brought the system back to a healthier level by bringing leverage levels back to levels closer to the beginning of the year. We expect a gradual upward climb rather than a sharp ATH run going forward.”
The institution also states that the risky altcoin segment was the most affected by the liquidation, while institutional investors remained largely insulated from this wave.
According to Nansen data, “smart money” flows have been directed towards EVM-based networks like Ethereum and Arbitrum in recent weeks, while Solana and Binance Smart Chain have seen a loss of momentum. Coinbase states that these flows are not buy signals, but rather indicators used to understand which ecosystems the market is concentrated in.
The report states that the next strong upward wave will likely be driven by institutions. Institutional investors were minimally affected by the liquidation wave because they kept their leverage low and largely concentrated in large-cap assets. Therefore, the market is expected to regain strength as institutional appetite returns, but it notes that this could take several months.
*This is not investment advice.
