TON Analysis maps 7 key levels for this week’s neutral setup

31 октября 2025

Summary

In summary

  • Price at 2.29 USDT sits on the 20-day EMA, a balanced spot.
  • RSI at 45.65 → mild downside bias; MACD turns slightly positive.
  • ATR 0.11 suggests moderate daily volatility around recent ranges.
  • This TON Analysis highlights 7 levels to watch this week.

Multi-timeframe analysis

TON Analysis: Daily setup (D1)

D1 price is 2.29 USDT, exactly on the EMA20 (2.29), below the EMA50 (2.55) and well under the EMA200 (3.12). This positioning signals medium-term weakness while near-term balance persists at the 20-day average.

RSI 45.65 sits below 50, indicating a neutral-to-bearish tilt. Buyers are present but not dominant, which can keep rallies contained.

MACD line (-0.11) is above signal (-0.15) with a positive histogram (0.04). Momentum is stabilizing, hinting at a potential shift from selling pressure to neutrality.

Bollinger Bands center at 2.19, with upper at 2.35 and lower at 2.04. Price near the mid-to-upper zone suggests modest upside probes, but not a full breakout.

ATR 0.11 shows moderate daily volatility, favoring defined risk parameters and recognizing that swings of ~0.10 are routine.

Pivots: PP at 2.27, R1 at 2.30, S1 at 2.26. Hovering above PP leans slightly supportive, but R1 caps first attempts higher.

Overall, D1 reads neutral: momentum is steadying, yet medium-term trend resistance remains overhead.

TON Analysis: Intraday view (H1)

H1 price at 2.29 USDT sits above EMA20 (2.26), EMA50 (2.25) and EMA200 (2.20). This alignment favors intraday dip-buying as long as those averages hold.

RSI 59.30 points to bullish intraday bias without being overbought, suggesting buyers have the upper hand for now.

MACD is marginally positive with flat histogram, implying momentum is constructive but fragile.

Bollinger mid at 2.26 with upper at 2.30 keeps price near the top band, a sign of strength but also proximity to near-term resistance.

ATR 0.02 indicates tight hourly ranges; small pullbacks can reset momentum without breaking structure.

TON Analysis: Micro structure (M15)

M15 trades above EMA20 (2.27), EMA50 (2.26) and EMA200 (2.25), preserving a short-term up bias.

RSI 68.23 is near overbought; combined with price pressing above the upper band (2.28), this hints at a brief cooling risk.

MACD is flat, signaling a pause after the push higher; ATR 0.01 reflects compressed micro volatility.

Takeaway: D1 is neutral, while H1 and M15 lean bullish but stretched. If momentum eases, price could mean-revert toward pivots before attempting another push.

Key levels

Focus: 7 key levels to watch this week for support and resistance clarity.

Level Type Bias/Note
2.26 S1 (daily pivot) First support; loss opens room to 2.19–2.04 bands
2.27 PP (daily pivot) Balance point; above favors mild bullish attempts
2.30 R1 (daily pivot) Near-term resistance; H1 top-band area
2.35 Bollinger upper (D1) Volatility cap; breakout would add momentum
2.19 Bollinger mid (D1) Mean-reversion magnet if momentum fades
2.29 EMA20 (D1) Dynamic pivot; staying above supports buyers
2.55 EMA50 (D1) Medium-term resistance; bulls need reclaim

Trading scenarios

Bullish

  • Trigger: Sustained move above 2.30 (R1) with rising H1 RSI/MACD.
  • Target: 2.35 (D1 upper band), then 2.55 (EMA50) if momentum persists.
  • Invalidation: Close back below 2.27 (PP).
  • Risk: Use 0.5–1.0× D1 ATR14 (~0.06–0.11) for stops; volatility can snap back near bands.

Bearish

  • Trigger: Failure at 2.30 and a drop below 2.27 (PP), confirming seller control.
  • Target: 2.26 (S1), then 2.19 (middle band) on mean reversion.
  • Invalidation: Recovery above 2.30 with strengthening H1.
  • Risk: Stops 0.5–1.0× D1 ATR14; watch M15 overextension signals unwinding.

Neutral (main)

  • Trigger: Price oscillates between 2.27 and 2.30 while D1 RSI holds near 45–50.
  • Target: Range trades toward 2.19–2.35; fade extremes back to PP.
  • Invalidation: D1 close outside 2.19 or 2.35 bands.
  • Risk: Scale positions using 0.5× ATR (~0.06) given moderate volatility.

Market context

Total crypto market cap: $3.89T; 24h change: -1.66%. BTC dominance: 57.84%. Fear & Greed: 51 (Neutral). High dominance and neutral sentiment often keep altcoin trends contained unless catalysts emerge.

Ecosystem (DeFi or chain)

TON Analysis context

DEX and launchpad fees show mixed participation: STON.fi (-32.20% 1d, +21.71% 7d, +114.57% 30d) and DeDust (-4.79%, -14.99%, +96.14%) suggest rotation; TONCO (-54.61%, +17.84%, -87.63%) is inconsistent. Launchpads Blum (+59.52%, +81.08%, +139.29%) and BigPump (+60.53%, -97.12%, +454.55%) show volatility.

Reading: Mixed fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms, aligning with a wait-and-see market tone. See also IMF: Cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR