LINEA is trading near $0.025 after a sharp 9% daily correction, now down more than 40% from its September 10 high. While the broader market prepares for a possible Fed rate cut, LINEA has turned into one of the biggest daily losers.
Wallet flows reveal a sharp divide: smart money has staged a mass exit (for a specific reason), while only the largest holders are keeping buying pressure alive.
Smart Money Exit Aligns With Bearish Breakdown
On-chain data shows that smart money wallets cut their LINEA holdings by nearly 85% in the past 24 hours, trimming 23.9 million tokens (almost $598,000 at $0.025) and leaving just 4.37 million. This exodus coincided with the breakdown of a head-and-shoulders formation, a bearish structure we’ll return to later.
The timing suggests these investors spotted the risk early and reduced exposure before deeper losses.
Despite that exit, exchange balances have also dropped by 36.4 million LINEA ($910,000 at $0.025) in the same period. Outflows from exchanges usually hint at steady buying pressure.
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But this pressure is not broad-based: top 100 wallets — the so-called megawhales — added 157.4 million tokens ($3.9 million at $0.025), propping up the market while both retail and smart money reduced exposure. In short, LINEA is being held afloat almost entirely by its largest holders. But the question is: for how long?
Buying Pressure Isn’t Convincing
The Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks money moving in and out by combining price and volume, helps explain why the buying from mega whales is not lifting confidence.
Since September 15, as LINEA’s price corrected, MFI has been trending lower. A rising MFI usually means strong dip-buying; a falling MFI signals weak demand or buyers chasing rallies.
Here, the divergence is clear. Even though net exchange outflows confirm tokens are leaving platforms, MFI shows wallets are not supporting dips but instead buying into short-term rises (as shown by short-lived MFI spikes), likely flipping for swing trades.
This disconnect underscores the fragility of the buying pressure.
Bearish Pattern Sets the LINEA Price Target
The technical picture reflects the same weakness. The LINEA price has already broken down from a head-and-shoulders pattern, a setup that often marks a reversal from uptrend to downtrend. The neckline break on September 16 lined up with the smart money exit, reinforcing the bearish case.
The breakdown projects a downside target near $0.019, which would mark a fresh all-time low. For any recovery, LINEA must first reclaim $0.029 to weaken the bearish tone and then push above $0.033 to reestablish bullish momentum.
Until then, the combination of smart money leaving, retail selling, and a weakening MFI keeps risks tilted firmly downward.
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