Over the past 102 days, since Nov. 4, 2024, Polymarket’s open interest has plummeted over 78% from its peak, marking a tumultuous descent. Yet even amid this contraction, the blockchain-driven prediction platform’s current open interest maintains a staggering 1,200% elevation above levels observed across several years preceding February 2024.
Prediction Markets in Flux: Polymarket’s Volatility and Unprecedented Growth
This week, Polymarket’s speculative theater brims with feverish activity, centering on wagers tied to Donald Trump’s first 100-day gambits, the sprint toward artificial general intelligence (AGI), and the geopolitical chess match of global trade tensions.
Among the platform’s most tantalizing betting contracts lie debates over Germany’s 2025 parliamentary victor, the odds of Trump brokering a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire within his first 90 days, and whether he’ll unveil the Jeffrey Epstein dossier in his first 100 days.
Data from Dune Analytics shows volume on Polymarket has been on a steady decline since the 2024 U.S. election, with January recording $1.2 billion in volume—lower than the $1.9 billion achieved in December. So far in February 2025, nearly $349 million in volume has been logged, suggesting this month might conclude on a less favorable note than the previous one.
Most understand that much of Polymarket’s volume during the last quarter of 2024 originated from the U.S. election, and on Election Day, open interest reached a peak of $446 million. Today, it sits at $96 million, representing roughly a 78.48% drop since the first week of November.
Nevertheless, from 2020 to the beginning of 2024, open interest remains about 1,271% higher. These comparisons—a steep drop coupled with enduring growth—form a paradoxical picture of resilience. Although the platform’s recent course demonstrates variability, its broader trend since early 2024 reveals a steadfast presence in prediction markets.
Google Trends data further indicates that Polymarket has experienced a pronounced downturn in public interest. The search query for the term “Polymarket” attained a peak score of 100 during the week of Nov. 3-9, 2024. Presently, the metric registers a modest 4, reflecting a substantial drop in search term interest.
Global interest, though diminished, persists in fragmented pockets, anchoring its niche. At this moment, the greatest interest originates from China, the United States, Israel, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Notably, the most engaging topics and queries pertain to former Vice President Kamala Harris.
