Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal believes that the crypto market will rally heading into the end of 2024.
In a new interview with crypto trader Scott Melker, the macro guru says that based on historic precedence, Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets may put up larger gains during the last week and half of December.
A rally at this time of year is often referred to as a Santa Claus rally, a financial term used to describe a calendar effect on traditional equities that historically have gone up on the last five market trading days of the year in December and the first two trading days of the new year.
“Normally, what happens at this phase is we should rally into year-end pretty strongly in everything. But then the real game gets played in first quarter.”
Pal also believes that the most explosive rally of the current market cycle is still to come and that it could occur next year, possibly around the Fed’s meeting in March when rates may be cut.
“I think my next phraseology is going to be the banana singularity, that’s when everything goes bananas…
So we’re not at the banana zone singularity point yet. That will come as well. That’s probably sometime Fed March when it all gets silly.”
However, Pal also warns there may be a temporary correction around the end of the year after a rally due to liquidity tightening. He believes the growing money supply is a catalyst for Bitcoin price, and that when it declines so does the flagship crypto’s price.
“Let’s look at the last [US President Donald] Trump administration. So from September to the end of the year, the dollar rallied. September to the end of the year, rates went up. Same narrative. It was all about tariffs and what’s he going to do and how’s it going to play out.
Almost exactly as the year turned, the dollar went lower, the rates went lower. So I’ve been producing a chart showing that global liquidity tightened and it has a 10-week lead time, and that should mean that at the end of the year, we get a correction.”
Bitcoin is trading for $94,367 at time of writing, down more than 11% in the last seven days.
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